Risky Business: Using Bad Science To Justify School Re-Opening
The back to school debate is difficult to objectively and ethically engage in because the information we have is incomplete. The push to open and re-open has always been driven by risk assessments informed by bad science rather than a humane approach that relies on actual scientifically valid assessments. This sort of pseudoscience has been used for centuries in the United States, including with the eugenics movement, tobacco industry and radium. Folks in power use just enough bad science to convince folks who are hurting to accept and rally for a cause that has some very real, painful outcomes, in this case sickness and death.
Before I’m labeled a conspiracy theorist, I’d like to say that any middle school student meeting state standards would understand the flaw in the scientific argument presented to fully re-open schools. We don’t know if students in our schools don’t spread the virus, because we aren’t testing everyone who has had contact with someone who has it. Our contact tracing is barely scientific; there are so many variables that work against quality contact tracing…memory, ventilation, fear of getting in trouble for not following mask or spacing requirements…that even when it’s done well, contact tracing is not followed up with mandatory testing. In fact, it might not even be followed up by mandatory quarantine depending on the advice a school is using… how far from the positive patient, how long was the exposure, how masked was everyone? A positive student in a classroom might not be required to quarantine, let alone test, if they sat far enough away from a positive patient.
The idea that the virus doesn’t spread in school is still a working hypothesis; there’s no evidence it does or does not spread because we’re not testing. This is no different than someone proclaiming that they never have driven over the speed limit. What evidence can they provide? They likely would say “I’ve never gotten caught.” This statement proves nothing about speeding, only about getting caught. In this pandemic, we’ve learned that children, in general, are less symptomatic, yet they still carry and spread the virus. They could be speeding right along, we just don’t know, because we’re not using the traffic radar cam to catch it.
Here’s another hypothesis, the virus is spread in schools easily, which then contributed to an increase community spread. When I observe the correlation between schools being open and the increase in community spread, it’s a pretty solid hypothesis. If I were to use the scientific method taught to me in middle school, however, I’d find it really difficult to prove because there are so many variables including the opening of bars and restaurants at about the same time as schools reopened. Which is to blame? Neither? Both? Who knows because we don’t care to know. Children and their teachers weren’t even given the chance to attend school safely and soonest because adults in charge couldn’t commit to making every effort to conduct quality data collection without variables.
So, here we are. And once again, we’ve got folks pitted against each other because of the pedaling of pseudoscience by government officials. We’ve got teachers who are fighting for their safety, pitted against parents suffering from pandemic fatigue or poverty, armed with trumped up and incomplete data from a poorly designed science experiment. Some I suspect understand the bad science, but are so desperate to get the supports they need, they’ll risk it, even if that means risking the lives and health of others.
And that’s what our decisions to open schools is based on, a risk assessment. Risk assessment is a sophisticated pros and cons process weighed against the possibility of consequence. When we decide to speed, we know there’s a chance we’ll get caught or that we’ll get in an accident. If the weather conditions are good and we don’t usually see police doing radar checks on a particular stretch of road, we might risk getting a ticket in order to get somewhere faster. If we’re running late for work and will get docked pay, we might also risk a ticket, even if we know police are usually around and our chances of a ticket are higher.
In the risk assessment for a full re-opening of schools during the pandemic, the very real risk is not a speeding ticket, it’s death. And the assessment is based on incomplete or bad scientific data collection. This is why teachers are resisting a full return, they know it’s bad science. They’re also resisting because they’re being told unless there is a cluster, there’s no evidence they contracted it at school. Classic gaslighting…there’s no evidence because there is no testing. Who is accountable if a teacher catches it at school and has life long health issues or worse death? Not the school district who forced an unsafe opening, there’s no evidence, because there is a purposeful refusal to collect the evidence.
My personal opinion on re-opening is that we should have rethought public education for the year. Parents who could have kept kids home this year should have, so that kids who needed a safe space to go could have. Yes, that means some teachers would be in buildings, but with fewer kids. Our government should have provided families with the means and support to keep children home. Teachers should have been assigned to one small group of students to build learning communities with. Content for learning is already created and curated, our kids this year needed connection and sense making.
But, that’s not what happened, and folks are scrambling to do whatever it takes to get kids back full time, even if that means they’re using bad science to justify it, even if that means risking just one life.
I think there are plenty of schools that can fully re-open, no problem. They have the space, the ventilation, the student population size and the ability to do quality contact tracing, quarantine and testing. But that is not what is about to happen.
My husband and I were able to keep all of our children home this year. He is the only one that has to go into a school building. He works at a small alternative public school with students who have gone to school full time during the pandemic. We knew our system would not be honest with us, because the state did not create the conditions for them to be honest. What a world we live in…
Give me truth; cheat me by no illusion.
— — — — — — — — — — Margaret Fuller
